The Milton Budget Coordinating Committee shifted its focus during the March 2 meeting toward building a long-term forecasting model to anticipate structural deficits before they arrive. Recognizing that the town is entering a period of significant financial pressure, Chair Megan Fountaine directed the town and school leadership to move beyond the immediate FY27 budget cycle. Fountaine explained, I want to unpack what that model could look like. I want to make clear we're going to start driving these conversations in the direction of forecasting. The committee intends to have a three-year projection ready for review by late April to provide transparency to Town Meeting members regarding the town’s fiscal trajectory.

Town Administrator Nicholas Milano detailed several looming drivers on the municipal side, specifically highlighting the expiration of all collective bargaining contracts on June 30, 2025. He noted that while younger departments, like the currently expanding Fire Department, are less expensive initially, costs will jump as personnel move through pay grades. Milano also pointed to external contract volatility, stating, The biggest pressure other than snow and ice will be our trash collection, recycling, and disposal contracts, which are aligned through 2027. He suggested that while the town aims to be cognizant of taxpayers, increasing the trash fee remains an option to cover those variables in FY28. Additionally, debt service for completed capital projects is expected to see a significant spike that same year.

The school department faces similar labor and mandated cost pressures. Superintendent John Phelan told the committee that our biggest driver in the schools is salaries, which make up 81% of the budget. School Business Official Katie Desrosiers elaborated on the nuances of these costs, noting that even with level staffing, average step increases are approximately 5%. When combined with cost-of-living adjustments, some employee costs have historically risen by 7.5%. Desrosiers also highlighted non-salary mandates like transportation, where a lack of statewide vendors has led to an 8% annual increase for the fourth and fifth years of their current contract. Regarding special education, Phelan emphasized the district’s commitment to an inclusive model, noting, The diversity we get by being inclusive is a gift to all students.

The discussion turned technical when committee member Brian questioned the reported salary increase figures, stating, I'm pretty sure the average teacher salary increase is like 3%. Desrosiers countered that state data often only reflects cost-of-living adjustments and ignores the impact of step and lane movement on the actual budget. Phelan clarified that the district uses comprehensive state-wide services to ensure Milton’s contracts remain very standard, right in the middle of comparable towns. One committee member added a perspective on recruitment, noting, I don't think Milton's starting salary is especially low. $60,000 for a 22-year-old with zero experience is actually pretty good compared to the private sector.

Despite the uncertainty of ongoing contract negotiations, the committee reached a consensus to move forward with forecasting using placeholders. Member Jay expressed concern about delays, saying, I worry that if we say we can't do anything until we have a school forecast, and the schools say they can't give one until negotiations finish, we'll spin our wheels. Fountaine agreed, noting that an imperfect model with clear assumptions is preferable to no model at all. Member Mark echoed this sentiment, suggesting that utilizing past costs is an easy way to explain why we are making certain assumptions to the public. Committee member Winston asked for clarity on the process for guessing growth in special education costs, leading Phelan to describe a bi-weekly tracking process that monitors every student’s tuition and transportation needs.

The committee concluded by tasking the town and school administrations with merging their data into a unified three-year projection to be presented at their next meeting on March 23. Phelan warned that the forecast would likely show a shortfall between realistic expenses and projected revenue. What do we do if the realistic forecast doesn't match the realistic revenue? Jay asked. Phelan responded that identifying that gap is the primary goal of the exercise, allowing the town to understand the drivers of the deficit as early as August before the height of the budget season. Member Brian concluded that the shift from prior year appropriations to actuals and projections would be a huge improvement for everyone.